Data Insight: Changes in school performance and involvement in the criminal justice system
Categories: Research using linked data, Data Insights, ADR UK Research Fellows, ADR England, Office for National Statistics, Children & young people, Crime & justice
24 April 2024
This Data Insight investigates changes in school performance and subsequent involvement in the criminal justice system during young adulthood. The research draws on England-wide de-identified data from the National Pupil Database and Police National Computer, made available by the Ministry of Justice and Department for Education as an ADR UK flagship dataset.
What we found
The research found that pupils could generally be described as following one of five possible school performance trajectories:
- Average Consistent – Pupils generally perform at average or above average levels throughout school
- Average Increasing – Pupils generally perform around average levels in Year 2, and show a relative increase in their school performance, such that by Year 11 they perform at above average levels
- Average Declining – Pupils generally perform around average levels in Year 2, but show a relative decline in their school performance, such that by Year 11 they perform at below average levels
- Low Increasing – Pupils generally perform at below average levels in Year 2, but show a relative increase in their school performance, such that by Year 11 they perform around average levels
- Low Consistent – Pupils generally perform at below average levels throughout school.
Key findings included:
- Pupils with Average Declining and Low Consistent school performance trajectories were at higher risk of offence conviction or caution during young adulthood.
- The association between school performance and offence conviction or caution was similar across different offence types
- Pupils from the same schools and local authorities were not very strongly alike in terms of whether they went on to be convicted or cautioned of a first offence during young adulthood
- Other sociodemographic characteristics also play an important role in these relationships.
Why it matters
These findings suggest that changes in school performance as early as primary school could help to identify pupils who are struggling and in need of additional support. This could be informative for education practitioners evaluating the needs of their pupil body, or for researchers hoping to identify groups of pupils who might particularly benefit from studies of novel interventions. While we cannot infer any causal relationships from our research, the findings tentatively suggest that educational engagement and support may benefit some pupils and mitigate risk for later criminal justice involvement.
This Data Insight was written by Dr Alice Wickersham, an ADR UK Research Fellow. Find out more about the fellowship.
