Data Insight: Spatial analysis of Northern Ireland trade over the period 2014 to 2020

This Data Insight report explores Northern Ireland (NI) trade by region over the period 2014 to 2020, with particular emphasis on the impact of Covid-19.

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Background

The vision for Northern Ireland set out in the “10X Economy” is an innovation-led growth underpinned by trade and investment (Department for the Economy, 2021). Trade is critical to the amplification of benefits emerging from innovatory success and is crucial to Northern Irish development.

Northern Ireland has significant variability in trade endowments across the region. Coupled with this, the UK’s exit from the European Union has reconfigured trading norms for Northern Ireland - most obviously via an increased administrative burden and physical checks.

This combination of emerging policy and political change, alongside geographic heterogeneity, represents a timely setting in which to examine Northern Irish trading behaviour at regional level.

Our study uses the de-identified Northern Ireland Annual Business Inquiry (NIABI) dataset, including the Broad Economy Sales and Exports Statistics (BESES) dataset which contains data on trade sources and destinations. We examine the trading ecosystem that prevails for Northern Irish businesses, with a particular focus on activity at regional level.

Why it matters

The policy implication of our findings is that location is important, with differences in growth in real GVA, sales and purchases observed over the period 2014 to 2020. The scale of growth is generally greater in regions outside Belfast and Antrim and Newtownabbey. This may suggest that Belfast, in particular, has limiting factors that are restricting business growth.