Policy Briefing: Who benefited most from the crime drop? Measuring stability and change in victimisation inequality across different socio-demographic groups

Key statistics

• Crime victimisation in Scotland fell from approximately 1.05 million incidents in 2008/09 to 494,000 incidents in 2021/22.
• The proportion of adults experiencing crime decreased from 20.4% to 10.0% during the same period.
• The study analysed data from 96,229 adults across ten waves of the Scottish Crime and Justice Survey.
• Overall, 17% of respondents experienced at least one crime victimisation incident.
• Rising victimisation inequality was most strongly associated with ethnicity, disability and financial hardship.

Key findings

Crime fell for all groups, but not equally. Victimisation rates declined across every socio-demographic group examined between 2008/09 and 2021/22. The overall crime drop was broad-based, but the benefits were not distributed evenly across society.

Inequality increased for some of the most vulnerable groups. Rising victimisation inequality was most strongly associated with disability, financial hardship and ethnicity. Individuals within these groups experienced smaller reductions in victimisation risk compared with others.

Young people experienced the largest reductions. Adults aged 16 to 24 saw the greatest declines in victimisation over the study period. As a result, the gap between younger and middle-aged groups narrowed significantly.

The gender gap narrowed. Victimisation rates fell more rapidly for men than for women. This reduced the difference between genders, although it reflects greater improvements among men rather than increasing safety for women overall.

Hidden inequalities emerge through deeper analysis. Statistical modelling that accounted for overlapping characteristics revealed inequalities not visible through simple comparisons. In particular, disabled people and minority ethnic groups were at greater risk of victimisation than initial analyses suggested.

Why these findings matter for policy

Falling crime rates are undoubtedly positive, but lower crime does not automatically result in fairer outcomes. This research shows that inequalities in victimisation remain complex and persistent, with some groups continuing to face disproportionately high risks of experiencing crime.

The findings suggest that:

• Reducing overall crime is not enough to achieve equitable outcomes.
• Victimisation risk is shaped by multiple and interconnected factors, including poverty, disability and ethnicity.
• Some vulnerable groups may be overlooked if policymakers rely solely on headline statistics.
• Resources and interventions may not always be reaching the groups who have benefited least from declining crime rates.

Policy recommendations

The research highlights the importance of ensuring that crime prevention efforts explicitly address inequality. Key recommendations include: 

1. Target support towards groups at greatest risk
Prioritise prevention and support for people experiencing financial hardship, disability and minority ethnic communities, using data to identify those benefiting least from crime reductions.

2. Address the underlying drivers of victimisation
Integrate crime prevention with wider anti-poverty, housing and community safety initiatives to reduce exposure to risk and improve outcomes.

3. Improve data collection and analysis
Use both descriptive and advanced analytical approaches to identify hidden inequalities and strengthen data collection for under-represented groups.

4. Strengthen cross-government collaboration
Align justice, health, social care and equalities policies to develop shared approaches to reducing unequal exposure to harm.

5. Combine universal and targeted interventions
Maintain population-wide crime reduction strategies while implementing focused support for those groups experiencing the highest levels of risk.