Understanding change in the offender population and patterns of sentencing in Scotland

This project aims to improve understanding of who is being convicted in Scotland’s courts, what offences people are being convicted for, and how sentencing patterns have changed over time.

Research focus

Crime and convictions have reduced in Scotland over the last two decades. During this time, there have also been important changes in criminal justice policy, including the promotion of community justice and updated sentencing guidance.

However, important questions remain about who is being convicted, what crime people are been convicted for and how patterns of offending and sentencing have changed over time.

Improving our understanding of these issues will help us to better understand criminal justice practices and provides the evidence needed to support informed decisions and policy development.

Project aims

This project has two overarching aims:

1. To examine how the profile of people convicted in Scottish courts has changed over time and analyse differences in offending pathways across the life course.

2. To examine how sentencing outcomes have changed over time for different types of offences, including both prison and non-prison sentences.

The data

The project will use the Scottish Offender’s Index (SOI), which records convictions in Scotland’s courts between 1989 and 2021. 

Potential public benefit

The findings from this project will provide valuable evidence to support justice policy and future planning in Scotland. Potential benefits include:

• Identifying which groups of people and types of crime place the greatest strain on the justice system
• Providing evidence to support the development of sentencing guidelines for specific offences
• Assessing whether alternatives to prison could reduce pressure on the prison system
• Improving understanding of how changes in offending patterns may affect the future prison population
• Identifying potential inequalities in sentencing outcomes across demographic groups
• Improving transparency and supporting public confidence in the criminal justice system

Research team

Professor Susan McVie, Dr Ana Morales-Gomez, Dr Michael Frith (University of Edinburgh) and Dr Ben Matthews (University of Stirling)

Research stakeholder: Scottish Government Justice Analytical Service (JAS)