How do firms cope with economic shocks in real time? (ONS Research Excellence Series 2025)
20/03/2025
Categories: Data linkage programmes, Research using linked data, Events, Research findings, ADR England, Office for National Statistics, Climate & sustainability, World of work
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) Research Excellence Series 2025 welcomes the winners of the Impact of Analysis Award – Collaboration with Government. This team's work built a new toolbox of high-frequency linked microdata to estimate firm responses to economic shocks in near real-time.
This talk will show a study on how businesses adjust to significant rises in energy costs. This matters for both the current energy crisis and the longer-term shift towards net zero. Using firm-level real time survey and administrative data, backed by a pre-registered analysis plan, the research examines how firms respond to the energy price shock triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine along output, price, input, process and survival margins.
It found that, on average, firms pass on some cost increases, build up cash reserves, and face higher debt - but they do not yet see layoffs or bankruptcies. However, effects are highly heterogeneous by size and industry: small firms tend to increase cash reserves and prices, while large firms invest more in capital. The team estimated separate elasticities for small industry cells and use clustering techniques to identify firm-adaptation archetypes. These estimates can help tailor firm support in the energy transition both in the short and the long term.
Find out more in the discussion paper.
Meet the presenter
Christina Palmou, Office for National Statistics (ONS)
Christina is an Economist at the ONS Economic microdata transformation team and an ESCoE PhD student at King’s College London. She was previously a Senior Economist in the Renewing the Centre team at the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change where she worked on issues surrounding atypical work, worker’s rights and net zero, and a Senior Econometrician at Oxford Economics.
Event details
When: 10:30-11:30, Thursday 20 March 2025
Where: Online
How to attend: Register on Eventbrite.
Find out more about the Research Excellence Series
Each year, the ONS organises a collection of online research events called the Research Excellence Series. The series showcases exceptional research projects that use a diverse wealth of invaluable research data. This data is used by researchers to produce new insights, inform change and make a difference in people's lives.
This monthly series will include the winners from the ONS Research Excellence Awards 2024. Join ONS for their popular series and have the chance to get closer to researchers and their inspiring projects, through these virtual events.
Explore the full series and book your place for the upcoming talks.
