Journal publications using ADR UK flagship data

2025Jerrim, John

School absences, exclusions and criminal sentences amongst high-achieving children from disadvantaged socio-economic backgrounds

A small but growing literature is exploring the later lifetime outcomes of initially high achieving young people from disadvantaged socio-economic backgrounds. These individuals have the potential to break through the glass ceiling and climb up the socio-economic ladder, though unfortunately many fail to achieve this goal. This paper presents new evidence on a selection of behavioural outcomes for this group, focusing on their attendance at and exclusions from school, along with cautions/sentences received for involvement in criminal activity. By using large-scale administrative data from multiple school cohorts in England, we can explore intersectionality between high-achievement, socio-economic background, gender and ethnicity in greater detail than prior research. We find substantial differences in absence rates throughout secondary school relative to their equally able but more socio-economically advantaged peers, with this a particular issue for those of White and Mixed ethnicity. On the other hand, exclusions from school and cautions/sentences are particularly elevated amongst high achieving disadvantaged boys – most prominently those from Black and Mixed-race backgrounds – and peak during Key Stage 4. We also find that differences in attendance, exclusions and cautions/sentences while at school can only partially explain socio-economic differences in the propensity to be cautioned or sentenced as an adult.

Dataset used: Ministry of Justice & Department for Education linked dataset - England

2023Leckie, George et. al

An investigation of student intersectional sociodemographic and school variation in GCSE final grades in England in 2020

In 2020, COVID-19 forced the cancellation of all student end-of-school examinations in England. Schools were asked to provide centre assessment grades (CAGs), offering their best estimates for what students would have achieved had they sat their examinations. Although initially ignored in favour of grades calculated via an algorithm, students were eventually awarded their CAGs following widespread public outcry over the calculated grades. Whether CAGs were unfairly awarded across different student groups and schools in 2020 compared to previous years is a key question. However, existing analyses of bias in CAGs are limited by a lack of attention to potential interactions between student characteristics, and thus to hidden differential grade inflation across intersectional groups. We address this by examining student GCSE performance in 2018, 2019, and 2020 via a Multilevel Analysis of Individual Heterogeneity and Discriminatory Accuracy (MAIHDA) analysis of intersectional sociodemographic variation which we cross-classify with schools given their role in generating CAGs. Overall, a picture of stability emerges, where despite substantial overall grade inflation in 2020, the use of CAGs does not appear to have generated new or divergent intersectional relationships in comparison to previous years, suggesting CAGs showed a similar susceptibility to bias as normal examinations.

Dataset used: Grading and Admissions Data for England