Discover peer-reviewed journal articles and reports that use ADR UK-funded flagship datasets. This collection is being expanded over time.
We first review research about income and earnings volatility and second provide new UK evidence about the latter using high-quality administrative record data. The USA stands out as a high-volatility country relative to the UK and other high-income countries, but volatility levels have remained constant in these countries recently. Almost all research has considered volatility from an annual perspective whereas we provide new evidence about month-to-month earnings volatility. There is a distinct within-year seasonal pattern to volatility, and volatility is highest for the top and bottom tenths of earners. High earnings volatility among top earners and its seasonality reflect pay bonus patterns whereas, for low earners, the instability of hours including zero-hours contracts likely plays important roles. Our findings have relevance to the design of cash transfer support in the UK because the monthly reference periods it uses do not align with many earners' pay periods.
Dataset used: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings linked to PAYE and Self-Assessment data – England, Scotland and Wales
Read more
Evidence for or against a causal effect of school exclusion on offending is inhibited by random allocation not being available on ethical grounds. To advance understanding of the connection between school exclusion and offending—specifically, serious violent offending—we emulate a randomized controlled trial using a target trial framework and a linkage of national education and justice data. Across more than 20,000 matched pairs of excluded and not excluded children exclusion was associated with at least a doubling of risk for perpetrating serious violence (hazard ratio 2.05, 95% CI: 1.83, 2.29) and homicide/near-miss homicide (2.36, 95% CI: 1.04, 5.36) within 12 months of target trial entry. We discuss the implications of these findings for theory and policy in education and criminal justice as well as discussing the extent to which the observed relationships can be considered causal.
Dataset used: Ministry of Justice & Department for Education linked dataset - England
The Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE) is based on an annual 1% sample of employee jobs and provides many of the UK's official earnings statistics. These statistics are produced using official weights designed to make the achieved sample in each year representative of the population of employee jobs in Britain by gender, age, occupation and region. However, we show that jobs in small, young, private-sector organisations remain significantly under-represented after applying these weights. To address this issue, we develop new weights and demonstrate their importance through policy-relevant examples. Our new estimates suggest that the bite of the National Living Wage is greater than previously reported, and the gender pay gap is wider. We conclude that a new official review of the methodology for ASHE is merited to improve the accuracy and reliability of data informing earnings analysis and research in the United Kingdom.
Dataset used: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings linked to 2011 Census - England and Wales
We used all-of-England inpatient data (Hospital Episode Statistics) to identify groups of adolescents with CHCs from age 5 to 15. Cohorts were born in 2000/01 to 2002/03. Data were linked to England’s National Pupil Database for secondary school (age 11 to 16) persistent absence (>1 month missed/year), exclusion, and non-enrolment to examine rates of each outcome by CHC groups.
Dataset used: Education and Child Health Insights from Linked Data - England
A small but growing literature is exploring the later lifetime outcomes of initially high achieving young people from disadvantaged socio-economic backgrounds. These individuals have the potential to break through the glass ceiling and climb up the socio-economic ladder, though unfortunately many fail to achieve this goal. This paper presents new evidence on a selection of behavioural outcomes for this group, focusing on their attendance at and exclusions from school, along with cautions/sentences received for involvement in criminal activity. By using large-scale administrative data from multiple school cohorts in England, we can explore intersectionality between high-achievement, socio-economic background, gender and ethnicity in greater detail than prior research. We find substantial differences in absence rates throughout secondary school relative to their equally able but more socio-economically advantaged peers, with this a particular issue for those of White and Mixed ethnicity. On the other hand, exclusions from school and cautions/sentences are particularly elevated amongst high achieving disadvantaged boys – most prominently those from Black and Mixed-race backgrounds – and peak during Key Stage 4. We also find that differences in attendance, exclusions and cautions/sentences while at school can only partially explain socio-economic differences in the propensity to be cautioned or sentenced as an adult.
It is known that children with lower neurodevelopmental abilities and children who live in poverty are at increased risk of contact with the criminal justice system, but whether these two risk factors interact is unknown. We used linked data from 519,920 children born in 2001/2002, who attended school in England. Prospective analysis tested whether Early Years Foundation Stage Profile (EYFSP) indexing functional development across six domains and pupil characteristics indexing poverty at age 4/5, predicted a caution or conviction by age 15/16.
Child maltreatment is a major public health issue. Child welfare services are provided to many children at risk of maltreatment to try and prevent negative outcomes and serious long-term harm. The excess risk of criminal justice contact among children receiving these welfare services is not well established and less is known about differences between male and female children, making effective health policy responses difficult.
In the examination of sentencing disparities, hypotheses related to social class have been relatively overlooked compared to explanations centered on offenders' ethnicity. This oversight is regrettable as both factors often intertwine. In this study, we investigate the mediating and moderating effects between offenders' residential area deprivation and their ethnic background using administrative data encompassing all offences processed through the England and Wales Crown Court. Our findings reveal the following: (i) substantial ethnic disparities among drug offenders, but mostly non-existent across other offence categories; (ii) area deprivation does not explain away the observed ethnic disparities, but pronounced area disparities are found for breach and assault offenses, wherein offenders living in deprived areas are penalized compared to their more affluent counterparts; and (iii) ethnicity and area deprivation interact, but only for breach offenses.
Dataset used: Data First: Cross-Justice System - England and Wales
Given the urgency of the transition to net-zero, there is a need for a robust evidence base to support an environmentally sustainable and equitable economy. Employing a linked administrative dataset and using both cross sectional and panel estimation techniques, this study examines employment opportunities and estimates the economic benefits of working in green occupations. Consistent with social role theory, the results indicate that individuals are more likely to work in green occupations if they are white, male, full-time, not represented by a collective agreement, and work for an SME or foreign owned business.
Children with neurodisability often have complex healthcare and educational needs. Evidence from linked administrative health and education data could improve joint working between services. We aimed to develop a diagnostic code list to identify neurodisability in hospital admission records; to assess the representativeness of this phenotype by characterising children with hospital-recorded neurodisability and their outcomes.
