Nearly half of people in Northern Ireland experienced upward or downward social mobility, with different health outcomes

Nearly half of Northern Ireland’s population experienced a change in their level of deprivation between 2010 and 2016, according to new ADR Northern Ireland research using linked administrative data. The Data Insight finds that while upward mobility is generally associated with better health outcomes, improvements in deprivation do not automatically translate into better health.

Using population-wide data for more than 1.5 million people, researchers identified seven distinct patterns of social mobility based on changes in area-level deprivation over time. Around 48% of the population moved either up or down the deprivation scale during the six-year period.

Overall, people who experienced upward social mobility had lower risks of mental health prescribing, accident and emergency attendance, and death compared to those who remained in highly deprived areas. In contrast, downward mobility was associated with increased risk across all outcomes compared to those who remained in areas of low deprivation.

However, the research also highlights an important exception. Individuals in the ‘substantial upward mobility’ group — those living in substantially less deprived areas in 2016 compared to 2010 — still experienced some of the poorest health outcomes, despite improvements in their area-level deprivation ranking. This finding suggests that the health effects of deprivation may persist even after circumstances improve.

Why it matters

The study is the first population-level analysis in Northern Ireland to use a data-driven approach to track trajectories of deprivation over time; and link these to subsequent health outcomes. It demonstrates the value of linked administrative data in understanding how changes in social and economic circumstances shape health.

Northern Ireland has some of the highest levels of deprivation in the UK, and longstanding inequalities in health outcomes between the most and least deprived areas. The findings suggest that policies aimed at promoting social mobility need to account not only for where people end up, but also where they start and the pathways they take.

The research forms part of a wider programme of ADR NI–funded work exploring deprivation, social mobility and health in Northern Ireland, with the aim of supporting more targeted and effective policy responses.

Read the Data Insight.

Acknowledgments

The authors would like to acknowledge the help provided by the staff of the Honest Broker Service (HBS) within the Business Services Organisation Northern Ireland (BSO). The HBS is funded by the BSO and the Department of Health (DoH). The authors alone are responsible for the interpretation of the data and any views or opinions presented are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the BSO.