Rethinking how we assess the risk of violent reoffending

This blog by ADR UK Research Fellow Dr Hannah Dickson explores the challenges of violent reoffending in England and Wales, and how a risk assessment tool developed in Sweden – OxRec - might help improve decision making in the criminal justice system. The blog outlines why better risk assessment matters, how current tools could be improved, and what her study hopes to uncover.

The consequences of reoffending

In England and Wales, about one in four people convicted of a serious violent crime will commit another offence within just two years. This poses a real danger to public safety and puts extra pressure on an already overstretched criminal justice system. It also points to a deeper issue - the difficulty in identifying those who are at the greatest risk of reoffending. This is important because these individuals could benefit most from interventions aimed at breaking the cycle of crime.

To address this, the criminal justice system relies on risk assessment tools. These are designed to help professionals spot those who might be more likely to reoffend. Information derived from these tools is used to guide decisions about things like sentencing, supervision, and treatment. The hope is that by using these tools, the system can offer the right support to the right people – and in doing so, reduce the chances of further crime.

However, the reality is more complicated. These tools aren’t always completed thoroughly, and when they are, they don’t always provide an accurate picture of someone’s risk. Moreover, they can be time-consuming to fill out, and the professionals who use them often need a lot of training to make sure they’re using the tools correctly. These issues limit their effectiveness in preventing reoffending. As patterns of crime change it is important to keep updating these tools. My earlier work, and that of the Department for Education and Ministry of Justice, show that some educational factors are associated with offending. Including these factors in risk assessment tools might improve their ability to identify the factors shared by people who are at higher risk of going on to violently reoffend after being released from prison. Increasing the understanding of these risk factors could support putting in place interventions where and when they are most needed to ensure they have the most impact in reducing violent reoffending. This includes understanding how early childhood intervention may play a part.

Testing a new tool: OxRec

The Oxford risk of Recidivism tool (OxRec) is a 14-item open access online risk assessment tool. It was developed using Swedish administrative data to estimate the risk of violent reoffending when people are released from prison in Sweden. The tool shows good accuracy in identifying those who go onto reoffend, is free to use, and takes only 10 minutes to complete using routinely available information.

There is potential for OxRec to be considered as a violence risk assessment tool in the criminal justice system in England and Wales. Its effectiveness has been demonstrated in various countries, including the Netherlands and Tajikistan, and it is currently used by probation services in the Netherlands.

But before this can even be considered, we need to see whether it can accurately assess the risk of reoffending here in England and Wales. So far it has been tested on a small number of people using Thames Valley police records. However, to properly evaluate its usefulness, it needs to be replicated in a larger and nationally representative sample of released prisoners in England and Wales.

About this project

Using a large cohort of released prisoners in England and Wales, this proposed project aims to:

1. examine whether educational factors are associated with violent reoffending in adults following release from prison
2. test whether OxRec can accurately assess the risk of violent reoffending among a sample of released prisoners in England and Wales
3. examine the extent to which the identified educational factors (aim 1) can improve the accuracy of the OxRec tool.

From research to effective intervention

It is hoped that findings from this project will:

• Improve violence risk assessment tools’ accuracy
• Support decision making in the criminal justice system
• Promote the importance of early childhood interventions to reduce crime.

To ensure that I achieve these outcomes, I will be consulting with people affected by this research. These include probation officers, who often carry out risk assessments and ex-offenders.

Find out more about Hannah’s project.