Children's social care and homelessness in Northern Ireland: Connecting data, changing futures

Homelessness among young people is often treated as a sudden crisis or an individual failure. The results presented in this ADR Northern Ireland report show that, for many, it is neither. Drawing on linked administrative data and lived experience expertise, it demonstrates that homelessness risk is patterned, predictable and visible within public systems - often years before homelessness occurs.

This report brings together two pieces of original empirical research using population-level linked administrative data (i.e. data routinely collected in the delivery of public services) to examine the relationship between children’s social care contact and homelessness risk in Northern Ireland (NI). It also showcases the value of administrative data for understanding risk across the life course and supports the case for better access to public data for research for public good.

Read the full report

What we found

• A large proportion of young people in NI who experience homelessness had prior contact with children’s social care.
• Care experienced young people, and those known to social services as children in need, face a substantially higher risk of homelessness than those with no social care contact.
• Care leavers face high risk of homelessness, particularly in the first two years after leaving care.
• Risk varies within care leavers, with factors such as age at leaving care, placement history and post-care living arrangements shaping outcomes.
• Youth homelessness risk peaks at predictable transition points, especially during late adolescence.
• For many young people with a social care history, homelessness is recurrent rather than a one-off event.

What young people with lived experience say

Experts by experience emphasised that:

• Being “known to services” does not always mean receiving effective or timely support.
• Transitions out of care can feel abrupt, unsupported and uncertain.
• They want to leave care safely, with a stable home, a plan, real support, and someone to call.

Leaving care affects your mental health - make the process easier, because not everyone has a mum and dad.

Why it matters

These findings challenge narrow understandings of homelessness as a short-term housing issue. Instead, they show that homelessness among young people is closely linked to early adversity, system interaction and missed opportunities for prevention.

This does not mean that social care contact causes homelessness. But contact with children’s social care represents a clear signal of vulnerability - and therefore an opportunity for prevention - before homelessness occurs. 

When this vulnerability is not recognised or acted upon across services, risk accumulates rather than diminishes. At the same time, variation in outcomes shows that homelessness is not inevitable. Timing, stability and continuity of support matter - and some pathways are more protective than others.

Why administrative data matters

Using population-level, linked administrative data allows patterns to be seen across systems like social care and housing for the whole population that can sometimes be invisible within single systems. It allows everyone to be seen and everyone’s journey to be recognised. It shows how people move over time and between services, where risk intensifies, and where earlier intervention could prevent later crisis. Used ethically and transparently, linking existing administrative data sets supports better informed decision making.

Find out more about the report launch and watch an animation exploring the findings.