Data Insight: Children involved with child welfare services and the likelihood of a custodial sentence

This Data Insight by Dr Anna Leyland summarises findings from working with the Ministry of Justice & Department for Education linked dataset - England. Using data from the National Pupil Database and the Police National Computer, the research analyses the likelihood of receiving a custodial sentence by 2020 for children who were referred to or received an intervention from child welfare services from ages 5-18. The data was made available through the Ministry of Justice Data First initiative funded by ADR UK.

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What we found

Custodial sentences occur more often when individuals have had a child welfare service referral or intervention

Custodial sentences are a rare criminal justice system outcome, especially for girls and women. Table 1 in the full publication shows the rounded counts and percentages of individuals within the whole population, and for females and males separately, who had any criminal caution and conviction and those who had one or more a custodial sentence. The values are also shown for each level of child welfare service involvement.

The table shows that:

• Boys are more likely to offend than girls regardless of child welfare involvement status.
• Custodial sentences are relatively rare but occur more often when individuals have had a child welfare service referral or intervention (compared to the general population).
• Individuals who were child looked after (i.e. had at least one out of home placement in childhood) were the most likely to have a custodial sentence.

The descriptive statistics in Table 1 may lead to a biased understanding of the impact of child welfare service involvement on likelihood of receiving a custodial sentence, as they do not include important other factors that may also explain this association, such as free school meal eligibility and school attendance. The regression models included many of the important other explanatory factors to explain the role of child welfare service involvement on likelihood of receiving at least one custodial sentence by the year 2020.

There is a stepped increase in the higher likelihood of receiving a custodial sentence as the level of child welfare service involvement increases

The unadjusted (does not take into account any other factors) and adjusted (takes in to account relevant other factors) regression models are shown in the tables in the full publication. The column estimates in each case show the odds ratio (likelihood of a custodial sentence) for each level of child welfare service involvement (referral only, child in need, child protection plan, child looked after), in each case compared to the no child welfare service involvement comparison group. The better estimates are from the adjusted models, and they tell us that children who were referred to child welfare service were 1.88 times more likely to receive a custodial sentence than the general population. This increases at each subsequent level of child welfare service involvement, with child in need being 2.29 times more likely, child protection plan 2.19 times more likely, and child looked after 7.33 times more likely.

The tables and figures also show the outcome from separate male and female analyses. Again, the adjusted models are most helpful to refer to. Males show similar increased odds of custodial sentences to the whole population - but with a difference in the odds for the child looked after group of 4.13 times increased odds of a custodial sentence. Whereas, females who had a child welfare service referral or intervention experienced a higher odds for having a custodial sentence than the whole population: 

• those referred to child welfare services had a 2.40 increased likelihood
• those who had been a child in need were 3.88 times more likely
• those with a child protection plan were 4.70 times more likely
• those who had been a child looked after were 11.37 times more likely than girls without child welfare involvement.

The regression findings show that even when other important factors are accounted for, there is a stepped increase in the likelihood of receiving at least one custodial sentence by age 22-25. This ranges from 2-4 times greater likelihood as the level of child welfare service involvement increases (and when compared to those without any child welfare intervention). The role of child welfare service involvement increased the odds for females of receiving at least one custodial sentence more greatly than males, with females experiencing 2-11 times greater odds compared to the non-child welfare female population.

Why it matters

The data analysis shows an increased risk for children who are referred to or receive an intervention from child welfare services in childhood (aged 5-18 years) to receive at least one custodial sentence by early adulthood. This is the first time that this stepped increase in risk of custody has been demonstrated in England and it provides the best evidence in the world to illustrate this association.

There is substantial evidence that adversity in childhood, in particular maltreatment in the form of neglect and abuse, increases the likelihood of criminal justice system contact and vulnerability to criminalisation. The findings from this report demonstrate that child welfare services, designed to protect children from harm and uphold their healthy development, do not sufficiently protect them so as to reduce their risk of receiving a custodial sentence (so that it is equal to the general population). In fact, the findings in this report show the highest risk for custody exists in the population who receive the most intense welfare intervention of out of home placements (child looked after status). There is global evidence that also demonstrates that out of home placements for children in the care system increases the risk of criminalisation .

One very important thing to consider is that children with child welfare system involvement are more likely to have faced challenges and adversity in their early lives. These experiences can impact children in multiple and different ways. The difficulties that children have faced and the way that it has impacted on them is something that the current analysis does not take into account, as these things have not been measured in the available data. The child welfare intervention is directly linked to childhood adversity in that the intervention should be in line with the needs and safety of the child. So when we say that the child welfare system involvement changes the likelihood of something happening, we may also be saying that childhood adversity changes the likelihood too.

Another important finding from this data analysis is that there is higher risk of custody for those who were referred to child welfare services but did not receive any intervention. This is a large group of individuals who may not otherwise be supported by any other service in childhood; this analysis shows they are more likely to experience the most severe criminal justice system outcome than the general population.

Finally, this report demonstrates that there is an elevated risk of receiving at least one custodial sentence for girls and women who are involved with child welfare services. This finding is aligned with other international research that has demonstrated an increased impact of child maltreatment and child welfare service involvement on criminal justice system outcomes for girls relative to boys. However, globally there exists a gender gap in offending whereby the overall offending rate is higher in boys and men.