Data Insight: Ethnicity, gender, remand, plea and sentencing

This Data Insight examines whether ethnic disparities persist across successive stages of the criminal justice system – remand, plea and imprisonment – after controlling for other factors, and how these disparities differ among men and women. The analyses seek to contribute to a better understanding of sources of cumulative disadvantage in the justice system. These may stem from disadvantages accrued at earlier decision points in the court process, as well as from the intersection of multiple identities such as gender and ethnicity.

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What we found

Remand and plea decisions

The results in Table 1 (see full publication) show that the odds of being remanded to custody prior to trial is higher for both men and women from Black, Mixed, White and other ethnic minority backgrounds compared to White British men and women. In contrast, there is marked variation in the odds of being remanded to custody between Asian men and women, with the odds of remand being lower for Asian than White British men but higher for Asian than White British women. The largest disparities in remand are observed for defendants from White and other ethnic minority groups not individually reported.

Similarly, Table 2 shows that men and women from ethnic minority groups are more likely to plead not guilty compared to White British men and women. For example, the odds of pleading not guilty for Asian men and women are 67% and 82% higher respectively than for White British men and women, after controlling for other factors. Similarly, the odds of pleading not guilty for Black men and women are 77% and 25 % higher respectively than for White British men and women.

Sentencing decisions

Ethnic disparities in sentencing are more pronounced for men than women. Men from ethnic minority groups, except for Asian men, are more likely to receive a custodial sentence compared to White British men. Among men, the odds of imprisonment for those from White ethnic minority groups are 8% higher, and 13% higher for those from Black, Mixed and other minority groups, compared to White British men. In contrast, only Black women are more likely to be sentenced to prison, having 25% higher odds of a prison sentence than White British women.

Effects of factors other than ethnicity

Beyond ethnicity, there is variation in the influence of defendant and case legal factors associated with remand, plea and imprisonment. The odds of being remanded in custody and sentenced to prison were lower among young (under 25) men and women compared to older age groups. Meanwhile, the odds of pleading not guilty were higher for older defendants (aged 45 plus) compared to younger groups. There are notable differences in the effect of offence type and severity and prior convictions on remand between men and women. For example, the odds of remand in court cases for more serious offences are 1.6 times higher among women but 6% lower among men. Remand is 3 times and 1.9 times more likely for robbery offences compared to other offences, among women and men respectively. The odds of imprisonment for robbery offences are also larger among women, being 4.8 times higher, while among men they are 2.3 times higher, than for other offences. Women with two or more prior convictions are 8 times more likely to be remanded, while men with two or more prior convictions are 4 times more likely to be remanded compared to those without prior convictions.

How different decision-points interact

The analysis shows the interconnected nature of plea, remand and imprisonment, such as how a defendant’s remand influences plea, and how both plea and remand status directly affect the likelihood of imprisonment. Women and men remanded in custody are 7 and 9 times more likely to be sentenced to prison, respectively, than those not remanded in custody. Men and women pleading not guilty are nearly 3 times more likely to be sentenced to prison.

Taken together, the findings reveal clear ethnic disparities from pre-sentencing to sentencing outcomes, with people from ethnic minority groups more likely to experience adverse outcomes at earlier decision points in the court system. These earlier adverse outcomes are shown to lead to harsher sentencing outcomes. However, while ethnic disparities are evident at earlier decision points in the court system, they appear more persistent and widespread at sentencing among men. This could suggest that some of the disadvantages experienced by women from ethnic minority backgrounds (with the exception of Black women) earlier in the process, are attenuated by the time of sentencing.

Why it matters

These findings suggest that ethnic disparities are present not only in sentencing but also at earlier stages in the court process, with the results revealing larger ethnic disparities in pre-sentencing outcomes. These pre-sentencing outcomes are shown to increase the likelihood of imprisonment reinforcing the idea that imprisonment is shaped by prior decisions in the court process. Systemic distrust and biases in the justice system are likely to contribute to higher not guilty pleas, arrests and remands among ethnic minority communities which in turn can result in harsher sentences.

While ethnic disparities are evident for both men and women at earlier stages in the court process, their persistence into sentencing appears more pronounced among men. The existence of ethnic disparities across multiple decision points –remand, plea and imprisonment – reflects a pattern of cumulative disadvantage in the justice system. The findings show that men from Black, White and Mixed ethnic minority groups are systematically exposed to more adverse remand, plea and sentencing outcomes compared to their White British counterparts, net of other factors.

This suggests that the intersection of ethnicity and gender shapes justice outcomes in distinct ways, with men from ethnic minority groups experiencing more sustained disadvantage than women. These patterns underscore the need to consider how multiple, overlapping identities interact to influence outcomes at different stages of the justice process and how earlier decisions shape later outcomes. The study offers evidence that interventions focusing solely on decisions during sentencing may overlook the compounded disadvantage faced by defendants who are subject to adverse outcomes at the remand and plea proposal stages of criminal court proceedings.

Addressing ethnic disparities in sentencing inequalities thus requires a need for greater judicial awareness and action to prevent earlier decisions from implicitly influencing sentencing decisions. For example, defendants from ethnic minority groups may be less likely to benefit from sentencing discounts that are dependent on a guilty plea because of distrust in the justice system. The findings underscore the need for reforms aimed at improved transparency and accountability in arrests, remand and sentencing decisions.