Data Insight: Experience of poverty and other risk factors among young people who offend in Scotland

This Data Insight presents findings from ADR Scotland research, which suggest that reducing child poverty might prevent early offending. However, a range of other factors would need to be addressed too. 

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Researchers were interested in the relationship between child poverty and youth offending.  Using data from a large study of children in Scotland, they found those who offended by age 12 were most likely to have experienced persistent child poverty. They were also more likely to have experienced neighbourhood deprivation, low parental monitoring, living with a single parent, and adverse childhood experiences.

What we found

We found that early onset offenders were more likely than the other two groups to have been exposed to persistent household poverty during childhood.  Figure 1 shows that 31% of early onset offenders experienced persistent poverty, compared to 25% of non-offenders and 22% of adolescent onset offenders. There was less difference between groups in the percentage who had experienced intermittent poverty, but early onset offenders were the highest. 

Early-onset offenders were more likely to have experienced persistent neighbourhood deprivation compared to the other two groups: this applied to 23% of early onset offenders compared to 20% of adolescent onset offenders and 18% of non-offenders.

Looking at the other types of social adversity, early onset offenders were most likely to have experienced all three. Figure 2 shows that those who engaged in offending by age 12 were far more likely to have experienced low parental monitoring, and somewhat more likely to have lived in a single-parent household or been exposed to 3+ ACEs, than the two other groups.

Why it matters

Reducing child poverty is a key policy priority in Scotland, as it is widely recognised that this could improve children’s longer-term outcomes into adulthood. Our study suggests that reducing child poverty might help to reduce the risk of early onset offending in Scotland. However, early offending is also associated with adverse environmental circumstances, including exposure to persistent neighbourhood deprivation, and a range of other household or family factors, such as poor parental monitoring, living in a single parent household and exposure to adverse childhood experiences.  Therefore, wider policies aimed at improving housing policies, reducing trauma, and supporting parents may be needed to help children thrive and reduce the risk of early offending. 

The associations found in this study between early onset offending and household poverty and other risk factors in childhood are consistent with prior criminological theory (e.g. Moffit, 1993). This theory suggests that early onset offending may lead to persistent offending over the longer term, so it is important to focus on tackling the factors that increase risk of early onset offending. Reducing exposure to child poverty and neighbourhood deprivation - as well as the other factors studied here - could help to reduce early onset, and later persistent, offending.  

Early intervention for those who experience multiple aspects of poverty may be most beneficial to children living in Scotland. Other research (not presented here) suggests that reducing the cost-of-living crisis, supporting families on low incomes, and reducing ‘financial strain’ within households may play a key role in reducing early onset offending. Given the strong association between parental supervision and early offending, assisting parents with childcare needs or afterschool provision may also be warranted.

Child poverty in Scotland is affected by a combination of devolved and reserved policy measures – such as personal taxation and benefits - so reducing child poverty may well require both UK and Scottish strategies.