Data Insight: Homelessness among young people leaving care in Northern Ireland

This study used linked administrative data to examine the risk of homelessness among young people aging out of care (care leavers) in Northern Ireland (NI).

Read publication

Following a matched cohort of care leavers and young people with no social care history for up to ten years, findings show that care leavers face a substantially higher risk of homelessness. Over six in ten young people leaving care went on to experience homelessness, with the highest risk in the first two years after leaving care.

Factors such as living in an urban or deprived area, multiple times in care, transition out of care before age 18 years and last placement in a foster care setting versus kinship care were associated with increased risk. Discharge to the care of parents or former foster carers were associated with reduced risk of homelessness.

The results underline the need for early, coordinated, and sustained support during the transition out of care into adulthood to reduce homelessness and improve outcomes for our young people leaving care.

What we found

Homelessness was much more common among care leavers than among other young people in NI:

• 63.9% of care leavers presented as homeless compared to 10.1% of matched young people
• 42.1% of care leavers presented as homeless within the first two years after exit
• 56.3% of care leavers presented as homeless more than once

The risk of homelessness  was highest in the first two years after exit, when care leavers had over 17 times the risk of homelessness compared to young people with no social care history. Although the risk reduced over time, it remained nearly seven times higher than for other young people even five to ten years after leaving care.

Several factors were associated with a higher likelihood of homelessness among young people leaving care:  

• Young people who had been in care three or more times were around 50% more likely to become homeless than those with only one care episode. 
• Those who left care early (aged 16–17 years) were more than twice as likely to experience homelessness compared with those who left at 18 years. 
• Leaving from foster care placements was also linked to a higher risk - around 70% more likely than for those last placed in kinship care. Care leavers whose final placement was in a children’s home or other setting also showed elevated risk, although these results were inconclusive (possibly due to smaller numbers and lower statistical power).
• Care leavers living in urban areas were almost three times more likely to experience homelessness than those living in rural areas. Care leavers living in the most deprived areas were also more likely to experience homelessness.

Some transition pathways appeared to protect young people from homelessness after leaving care:

• Care leavers who returned to live with their parents were around 60% less likely to become homeless, while those who stayed with former foster carers were around 65% less likely compared with care leavers who lived independently after discharge.
• Young people discharged to jointly commissioned / supported accommodation or to relatives or friends showed lower odds of homelessness, but the differences were inconclusive.

Why it matters

This study provides the first UK population-level evidence showing how the transition out of care is associated with a high risk of homelessness.

The results highlight a critical window in the first two years after leaving care, where targeted support could prevent housing crises. Findings reinforce the importance of early and needs-led transition planning and aftercare that extends beyond age 21 - aligning with upcoming reforms under the Adoption and Children Act (Northern Ireland) 2022 and the Northern Ireland Programme for Government 2024-2027.

Findings also highlight the importance of stable relationships and supported housing options in helping care leavers make a safe and secure transition to adulthood. By identifying who is most at risk, these data can inform housing and social care services to better coordinate support, reduce preventable homelessness, and help care leavers build stable adult lives.