Data Insight: School exclusions and criminal justice system involvement

This Data Insight by ADR UK fellow Dr Vickie Barrett explores the relationship between school exclusions and offending in England. We used the Ministry of Justice and Department for Education linked dataset which included de-identified data from the Police National Computer (PNC) and National Pupil Database (NPD).

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The analysis presented here estimates the probability of excluded school pupils being involved with the criminal justice system. Specifically, it considers the different types (and number) of school exclusions (temporary and permanent), along with a range of socio-demographic factors to examine their relationship with criminal justice system involvement. 

We used de-identified data from the Ministry of Justice (MoJ) - Department of Education (DfE) linked dataset involving 263,374 excluded schoolchildren born between 1st September 2000 and 31st August 2003. This included a range of socio-demographic factors, educational data recorded throughout compulsory schooling, along with offending records until December 2021; analysed using descriptive statistics and multiple binary logistic regression.

Our findings show that both temporary and permanent exclusions are related to criminal justice system involvement. The odds of pupils who had received at least one permanent exclusion were 2.41 times higher than those with no permanent exclusion of being involved with the criminal justice system. When considering temporary exclusions, this difference was more pronounced as the number of temporary exclusions increased. When compared to pupils with 1 temporary exclusion, the odds of those with between 2 and 4 exclusions were 2.46 times higher of any criminal justice system involvement. The odds increased to 4.71 times higher with between 5 and 9 exclusions, and to 6.59 higher for those with 10 or more temporary exclusions.

We conclude that, alongside permanent exclusions, temporary exclusions and, importantly, their rates, are key indicators when considering the criminal justice system involvement of school pupils. Moreover, an escalation in temporary exclusions should be treated as a serious cause for concern. 

Key findings

Exclusions are strongly associated with involvement in the criminal justice system. Around one in six excluded pupils had a caution or conviction, with the likelihood notably higher among those who experienced more severe or repeated exclusions. Permanent exclusion is particularly significant, and there is a clear pattern showing that as the number of temporary exclusions increases, so too does the likelihood  of offending. Even after accounting for a wide range of other factors, exclusions remain the strongest predictor of criminal justice involvement. Other characteristics—including gender, some ethnic backgrounds, disadvantage, special educational needs, and lower attainment—are also linked to higher likelihoods of offending, though their effects are smaller. Overall, the findings highlight a strong and consistent relationship between exclusion from school and contact with the criminal justice system.

Why it matters

School exclusions are the most severe form of school sanction: removing children from the school environment either on a temporary or permanent basis. Schools have statutory duties to safeguard children; therefore, having a deeper understanding of the experiences of excluded school pupils can help schools identify vulnerabilities to criminal justice system involvement. This analysis shows that temporary and permanent exclusions are related to an increased likelihood of criminal justice system involvement, which increases markedly in relation to increases in temporary exclusion rates. The concern regarding excluded school pupils therefore exceeds the school environment and should be a matter of concern for wider society.

The value of this analysis lies in recognising that school exclusions increase vulnerability; we propose that both permanent and temporary exclusions – particularly as these escalate - should prompt a safeguarding approach. Moreover, schools should use (and be supported to use) alternative strategies wherever possible.