Data Insight: Ethnic disparities in recall on licence

This Data Insight by ADR UK Fellow Dr Kitty Lymperopoulou investigates whether ethnic disparities persist post-sentencing by examining whether ethnic minority individuals released on licence are more likely to be recalled compared to their white British counterparts.

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The analyses are based on linked criminal justice datasets including criminal courts, prisons and probation, made available through the ADR UK-funded Ministry of Justice Data First programme, and multilevel models examining the likelihood of recall. 

Analysis of differences in recall by ethnicity indicated that individuals from white ethnic groups (white British, white Irish, and Gypsy, Irish Traveller and Romany) and mixed ethnicity (white and black Caribbean, and white and black African) groups were more likely to be recalled than those from other ethnic groups. There were also differences in licence conditions between ethnic groups. While electronic monitoring and reporting conditions were more prevalent among ethnic minority individuals, white British individuals were more likely to have drugs and alcohol testing, curfew and residency, programme participation and no contact conditions.

After adjusting for licence conditions and other factors, recall remained more likely for Gypsy, Irish Traveller and Romany individuals, and those from white Irish and white and black Caribbean groups than white British individuals.  In contrast, individuals from other ethnic minority groups including black African, black Caribbean, Indian, Pakistani and Bangladeshi groups were less likely to be recalled than those who were white British.

What we found

Recall rates varied by ethnicity, with the highest rates among Gypsy, Irish Traveller and Romany individuals, white Irish individuals, and white and black Caribbean individuals, while Indian, Pakistani, Bangladeshi, black African and black Caribbean groups had lower recall rates than white British individuals. 

Differences in licence conditions were also observed across ethnic groups, but after accounting for licence conditions, age, gender, offence type, sentence length and criminal history, most ethnic minority groups remained less likely to be recalled than white British individuals. 

The exceptions were Gypsy, Irish Traveller and Romany, white Irish, and white and black Caribbean individuals, who continued to show higher odds of recall, suggesting that patterns of ethnic disparity in recall are not uniform and differ from those observed at earlier stages of the criminal justice system.

Why it matters

The findings show that patterns of recall are not uniform across ethnic minority individuals. While some ethnic minority groups exhibited significantly higher likelihoods of recall relative to the white British group, individuals from most ethnic minority groups were less likely to be recalled than their white British counterparts, after controlling for the factors. This suggests that ethnic minority groups do not experience uniformly elevated risks of recall. It also suggests that post sentencing, the licence supervision stage may operate differently from earlier criminal justice stages where disparities are more pronounced (4).  Ethnic disparities identified at earlier stages of criminal justice processing are not consistently observed in recall on licence outcomes.