Policy briefing: The relationship between dimensionality and duration of household poverty during childhood and onset of youth offending

Recent political concern about rising youth offending in the UK has prompted renewed attention to the role of childhood poverty in shaping early criminal behaviour. Recent increases in youth offending have coincided with a period of chronic child poverty. The first of its kind in the UK, a recent study assessed whether different types of household poverty (and the duration of those experiences) predicts youth offending by age 12 and age 14. Four dimensions of poverty were considered: low income, parental unemployment, material deprivation and parental perceptions of financial strain. 

The study found that childhood exposure to persistent financial strain, as perceived by parents, was the deprivation measure that most strongly predicted youth offending by age 12. This is significant because it suggests that policy efforts to reduce cost-of-living pressures on over-stretched families may be more effective than other strategies in supporting efforts to reduce early youth offending.

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Key statistics (as of 2025)

• 4.3 million children living in low-income households 
• 17% of children living in persistent poverty 
• 17% rise in offence related referrals for children in Scotland in 2023/24 
• 1.5 bn annual cost of youth offending to the UK taxpayer

Key findings 

Perceived ongoing financial strain is the critical factor. Long-term financial strain increased the odds of offending by age 12 by 155%. No other poverty measure was statistically significant.

Duration matters more than intermittent exposure. Persistent financial strain over 3+ years was more strongly associated with youth offending than intermittent exposure (1-2 years).

Poverty matters most for early onset offending at age 12, not 14. Poverty, particularly financial strain, was associated with offending at age 12, with no significant associations at age 14.

Objective poverty measures are poor predictors. Low income, parental unemployment and material deprivation alone do not meaningfully capture risk of youth offending.

Family stress is important. How parents experience financial hardship (a subjective measure) is more important that what their income is on paper.

Why these findings matter for policy

The findings provide robust evidence that persistent financial strain as experienced by parents, is the key poverty-related factor linked to early youth offending in Scotland. This distinction matters because it shows that traditional, objective poverty measures used in policy targets (like income thresholds and employment status) do not fully capture the lived economic stress that affects children’s behaviour. The findings suggest that policies focused solely on raising income or employment may miss families experiencing chronic financial pressure, who are at greatest risk of poor outcomes. 

Incorporating subjective financial strain into poverty assessments would better identify vulnerable families, tailor early interventions more effectively, and design more targeted, preventative strategies to reduce early offending and support children’s wellbeing. The findings support an earlier intervention window including pre-school and early primary years to reduce offending behaviours by age 12.

Policy recommendations

1.Target long-term financial insecurity, not only acute poverty

• Stabilise sustained hardship income supports (e.g. guaranteed minimum income schemes, multi-year benefit uplifts). 
• Prioritise anti-poverty schemes for chronically financially strained households. 

2.Implement early years monitoring and support 

• Introduce screening for persistent financial stress in early childhood services (health visitors, early year centres etc) 
• Further integrate family support services combining financial help, parenting support and wellbeing. 

3.Expand community-based prevention for at-risk children

• Invest in youth engagement, school support and diversionary programmes targeted at children in chronic financially strained households. 

4.Strengthen cross-government collaboration

• Further align anti-poverty policy with youth justice, education and public health strategies. 
• Create shared indicators and data systems that allow ongoing monitoring of persistent child poverty and its behavioural impacts.