Predictors of positive life-course trajectories for children in contact with social services in Northern Ireland

This project aims to investigate the long-term outcomes of children in contact with social services, with a focus on identifying factors that contribute to both positive and negative outcomes.

Existing research indicates that children known to social services have high levels of mental health needs, while children leaving care have poorer health, educational and employment outcomes. However, research focusing on the predictors of positive outcomes within this cohort is rare.

Aims and key questions

The aim of this project is to build a powerful retrospective cohort exploring the health and social trajectories of children in contact with social services, examining factors associated with both poor and positive outcomes. Specifically, the project objectives are:

1. To enhance the Northern Ireland Social Services Client Administration and Retrieval Environment dataset by linking it to a range of health and administrative datasets
2. To examine the association between childhood contact with social services and a range of adult health and social outcomes, including mental ill-health, self-harm, mortality and interaction with prison services
3. To examine mediators and moderators of this association at an individual and area-level
4. To identify predictors of positive outcomes to help inform social care policy.

About the data

The proposed project will link over 30 years of data from the Northern Ireland Social Services Client Administration and Retrieval Environment to:

• primary care registration data
• prescription medication data
• self-harm registry data
• prison healthcare data
• geographical data
• death data.

Linking this data will allow us to better understand the antecedents to and outcomes of interaction with social services during childhood.

The potential

By identifying factors that lead to both poor and positive outcomes, this will help ensure that children and young people have the best start in life. Findings from this project will help identify trends in both poor and positive outcomes, aiming to highlight positive care trajectories and identifying risk factors that may help to target effective interventions

Publications

McKenna, S., Donnelly, M., Onyeka, I.N., O’Reilly, D. and Maguire, A. (2021). Experience of child welfare services and long-term adult mental health outcomes: a scoping review. Social psychiatry and psychiatric epidemiology, 56, pp.1115-1145.

McKenna, S., O’Reilly, D. and Maguire, A. (2023). The mental health of all children in contact with social services: a population-wide record-linkage study in Northern Ireland. Epidemiology and psychiatric sciences, 32, p.e35.

McKenna S, O’Reilly D, Maguire A. (2024). Childhood contact with social services and risk of suicide or sudden death in young adulthood: identifying hidden risk in a population-wide cohort study. Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health, 78 (1) pp. 47-53.

Data Explained: Social Services Client Administration and Retrieval Environment (SOSCARE), February 2024 (updated November 2024).

5. McKenna S, O’Reilly D, Ross E, Maguire A. (2025). Childhood contact with social services, self-harm and suicidal or self-harm ideation in young adulthood: a population-wide record-linkage study. Epidemiology and Psychiatric Sciences, 34:e2.

Young person's Data Insight: Childhood contact with social services, self-harm and suicidal or self-harm ideation in young adulthood: a population-wide record-linkage study, May 2024

Project details

Project lead: Dr Aideen Maguire, Queen's University Belfast (ADR Northern Ireland)

Duration: Due to be completed by 2026