Testing the reliability and validity of the Northern Ireland Multiple Deprivation Measure 2017

This project aims to evaluate the effectiveness of the Northern Ireland Multiple Deprivation Measure 2017. By investigating how well this measure reflects and predicts the social, health, and economic challenges faced by Northern Ireland’s population, the research will provide insights to inform future updates – ensuring it remains a reliable tool for researchers and policymakers.

Small-area deprivation measures have been widely used in the UK to understand inequalities in health since the 1980s. In Northern Ireland (NI), the current measure used to capture area-level deprivation is the NI Multiple Deprivation Measure (NIMDM) 2017.

Researchers and policymakers have, for some time, used data derived from this measure to understand and attend to the social, educational, health and economic needs of the NI population. Like other multiple deprivation measures, this measure has evolved over time and currently attempts to capture both overall deprivation and deprivation across seven distinct domains: Income, Employment, Health & Disability, Education, Skills & Training, Access to Services, Living Environment, and Crime & Disorder.

However, with the recent update to NI geography in the most recent NI Census (reducing 890 Super Output Areas to 850 Super Output Zones), the NIMDM 2017 is now outdated. In addition, although literature describes how the measure was designed and developed, no known data-driven approach has been employed to investigate whether the NIMDM 2017 reliably 1) represents deprivation or 2) predicts health outcomes.

The project

This project is divided into two phases:

Phase one focuses on using data to evaluate the reliability of the NIMDM 2017. Using domain, indicator, and overall scores sourced from the NI Neighbourhood Information Service, statistical methods are applied to test whether the measure accurately reflects its intended domains.

Phase two tests the predictive utility of the NIMDM 2017 by analysing whether deprivation scores (overall and by domain) are meaningfully associated with health outcomes in NI – i.e. whether higher levels of deprivation are associated with poorer health outcomes. Specifically, this phase tests associations between deprivation levels and:

• number of hospital admissions and duration of hospital stays
• a range of physical and mental health conditions
• long-term health trajectories.

About the data

Phase one uses data from the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA)’s NI Neighbourhood Information Service (now the NISRA Data Portal). This provides ranked domain scores for the 890 Super Output Areas in NI, as well as both ranked and non-ranked indicator scores.

Phase two uses hospital admissions data from 2018 to 2023 (the years following the introduction of NIMDM 2017), obtained from the Patient Administration System (PAS), via the Honest Broker Service. PAS includes information on dates of admissions and discharges, primary diagnoses*, and patient characteristics such as age, sex, and marital status.

* The following conditions were selected for the current study: chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, cancer, hypertension, stroke, coronary heart disease, diabetes, dementia, depression, and mental and behavioural disorders due to psychoactive substance use.

Potential

As the NIMDM 2017 is outdated, the findings from this project are timely. They have the potential to meaningfully inform the next iteration of the NIMDM, and ensure it remains a useful tool for policymakers and researchers to address the effects of deprivation in NI.

Publications

Preparatory scoping reviews of studies using linked data have been published, including:

• primary healthcare access following release from prison (see the review and study protocol)
• drug-related deaths after prison release (see the review and study protocol).

Furthermore, summaries of the development of the new linked prison healthcare dataset in Northern Ireland were presented in conference proceedings in 2023 and 2024.

Project details

Project lead: Professor Jamie Murphy

Co-investigators: Professor Mark Shevlin, Dr Enya Redican, Dr Stein Menting

Duration: Due for completion in 2025

Contact: ja.murphy@ulster.ac.uk / adrcni@qub.ac.uk

Funding:  This project is funded by ADR Northern Ireland via its core grant from the Economic & Social Research Council (ESRC) as an ADR UK partner.