From gaps to priorities: Strengthening the evidence base on youth transitions
21 March 2025
This blog from Jude Hillary, Principal Investigator for the ADR England Research Community Catalyst: Youth Transitions, highlights key gaps in research on how young people move from education to employment.
Good policy needs good evidence. Yet, when it comes to youth transitions – the journey young people take from education into employment or further study – our evidence base contains some notable gaps. These gaps represent policy blind spots, hindering interventions that could transform lives.
The ADR England Research Community Catalyst: Youth Transitions project – led by National Foundation for Educational Research with our co-investigators – has spent the past year mapping the landscape of existing research and consulting with stakeholders. What we found was both revealing and important.
Certain groups, such as mature learners or those who have been in the youth justice system, are notably absent from the evidence base. Equally, the kinds of research that policymakers most need, particularly robust causal studies on ‘what works’, are significantly outnumbered by descriptive studies that focus on documenting trends.
The missing voices in youth transitions research
Some groups are simply harder to study than others. Take young people who are not in education, employment, or training – they often go unnoticed in existing datasets, making it incredibly difficult to track their journeys to this point. The consequences of this data gap are considerable: without robust evidence, policymakers struggle to create effective strategies to support those most at risk of becoming part of this group.
Similarly, while there is a significant body of research on socio-economically disadvantaged young people, the definition of disadvantage varies considerably. Free school meals eligibility, the Index of Multiple Deprivation, and other measures all capture different facets of economic hardship, leading to a fragmented picture. We need a more consistent approach – either standardising definitions or encouraging researchers to test their findings across multiple measures.
The same problem exists with ethnicity. While ‘ethnic minority’ appears frequently in studies, broad categorisations in administrative data obscure the experiences of distinct groups. Gypsy, Roma and Traveller communities, for example, are among the most educationally disadvantaged in the country, yet their outcomes are rarely examined in the research.
The missing ‘what works’ studies
If gaps in populations are a problem, gaps in methodology are an even greater one. Descriptive studies dominate the literature, mapping pathways and transitions but stopping short of answering the fundamental policy question: what actually helps?
Causal studies – those that evaluate the impact of specific interventions or policies are limited. Yet these are the studies policymakers rely on to inform policymaking, programme design, and funding decisions. We need more work exploring not just whether young people from disadvantaged backgrounds access higher education or secure stable jobs, but also what interventions improve their chances of doing so.
At the same time, there is limited research on the impact of policy changes on youth transitions. Reforms have often been implemented in recent years with limited evaluation. Without rigorous studies assessing these changes, we are left without a clear understanding of their effects and risk continuing with a policy or programme which is not achieving its desired aims. Even worse, it could be causing more harm than good.
The untapped potential of administrative data
The UK has an extensive and valuable repository of administrative data, offering significant opportunities for youth transitions research. Linked datasets such as Longitudinal Education Outcomes (LEO) and Education and Child Health Insights from Linked Data (ECHILD) provide powerful tools for tracking young people’s journeys over time. While LEO has been increasingly utilised, there are opportunities to link together other datasets, which hold great potential for further insightful analysis.
A key focus for the research community should be ensuring that these rich data sources are fully leveraged. Investing in the infrastructure and skills needed to access and analyse these datasets will enable researchers to generate more robust evidence, providing valuable insights into the effectiveness of interventions and policies designed to support young people’s transitions.
Next steps: Building a research agenda that matters
The task ahead is becoming clearer. There is a need for us to:
- Prioritise intersectional research – recognising that young people’s experiences of education and work are shaped by multiple overlapping factors, not just single characteristics.
- Focus on under researched groups – looking at the educational and/or labour market outcomes for mature learners, young people who offend, and young people with experience of physical and/or mental health issues.
- Fund more causal impact studies – to shift the balance away from description towards actionable evidence on ‘what works’.
- Continue to invest in data infrastructure and skills – so researchers can better access and use linked datasets to answer pressing policy questions.
Addressing these challenges requires a collaborative effort. This is where this Community Catalyst project plays a crucial role. By bringing together researchers, funders and policymakers, we can work collectively to bridge these gaps and build a more comprehensive and nuanced evidence base that truly reflects the diverse experiences of young people.
If we succeed together, we can move towards more informed policy and practice – where every young person, regardless of their background, receives the support they need to navigate the transition from education to work.
The gaps are visible. Now it is time to address them together.
Jude Hillary is Co-Head of UK Policy and Practice and Head of Education Systems and Structures and Optimal Pathways at National Foundation for Educational Research.
Find out more about the ADR England Research Community Catalyst: Youth Transitions and sign up to receive updates on their work.
