Early adult outcomes for suspended and excluded pupils

This research used data made available via the Office for National Statistics (ONS) Secure Research Service, which is being expanded and improved with ADR UK funding.

Author: Allen Joseph, Whitney Crenna-Jennings, Education Policy Institute (EPI)

Date: January 2025

Research summary

This research used the Longitudinal Education Outcomes (LEO) dataset to explore long-term outcomes for pupils suspended during secondary school. The findings received widespread media coverage; education unions echoed calls for early intervention and wider access to support services; and the Department for Education acknowledged the need to address broader factors influencing behaviour, such as mental health and family support.

Tracking over 576,000 pupils, the report found that suspended pupils were less likely to attain specific qualifications, progress to higher education, or remain in sustained education, employment, or training in early adulthood. Suspended pupils were also more likely to claim state benefits. The risk of poor outcomes increased with each additional suspension, with those suspended ten or more times faring as poorly as those who are permanently excluded. Much of this reflects differences in GCSE attainment, which are likely to affect future educational and employment opportunities.

This study contributes to the literature in two ways. Building on previous research by the Education Policy Institute (EPI), the report shows how each additional suspension relates to various long-term outcomes. It also provides new evidence on state welfare use, made possible through the detailed linkage of administrative data. Together, these insights provide a clearer understanding of the long-term risks associated with behavioural challenges and school suspensions.

This report was funded by Impetus.

Data used

The researchers used the Longitudinal Education Outcomes (LEO) dataset to answer their research questions. LEO is a de-identified, person-level administrative dataset that combines education data with the employment, benefits, and earnings data of members of the public.

• Department for Education; HM Revenue and Customs; Department for Work and Pensions; Higher Education Statistics Agency, released 01 November 2023, ONS SRS Metadata Catalogue, dataset, Longitudinal Education Outcomes SRS Iteration 2 Standard Extract - England, https://doi.org/10.57906/pzfv-d195

Methods used

This project focused on the cohort born between September 1994 and August 1995, following their outcomes until age 24. Pupils’ school census records were linked to their school exclusions, attainment, employment, earnings, and benefits data. After excluding cases with missing data, the final sample contained 576,317 pupils, a successful match of 96% of students to their outcomes.

This work concentrated on suspensions issued during secondary school. Suspensions were modelled both as a binary variable (whether the pupil had been suspended or not) and ordinal variable (the total number of suspensions).

The outcomes reviewed were:

• Achieving Level 3 qualifications by age 19
• Attending higher education by age 24
• Being in sustained education, employment, or training at age 24
• Receiving out-of-work benefits by age 24
• Receiving health-related benefits by age 24

These binary outcomes were assessed using a combination of existing measures from the Young Persons Matched Administrative Database and the Higher Education Statistics Agency within LEO, alongside new measures developed within the LEO dataset to track education, employment, or training status.

To control for confounding factors, the researchers used logistic regression modelling to account for variables such as demographics and economic disadvantage, which could have independently influenced outcomes. Detailed regression tables and sensitivity analyses are available here: https://epi uk.gitlab.io/suspensions/.  

Research findings

In August 2024, the key findings were published in a report by EPI. Results showed that pupils suspended during secondary school experienced poorer outcomes in early adulthood compared to non-suspended peers. Suspended pupils were over twice as likely not to achieve Level 3 qualifications by age 19, twice as likely not to be in sustained education, employment, or training, and 1.6 times as likely not to attend higher education. Moreover, suspended pupils were 2.5 times as likely to rely on out-of-work benefits and 2.7 times as likely to rely on health-related benefits in early adulthood.

The risk of poor outcomes increased with the number of suspensions. For example, pupils suspended once were 1.8 times as likely not to achieve Level 3 qualifications, increasing to 2.4 times for those suspended five times and 2.6 times for those suspended ten or more times.

This risk decreased when differences in pupils’ GCSE attainment were taken into account, suggesting that much of the relationship between suspensions and poor long-term outcomes is mediated by attainment at GCSE.

The report also found that pupils suspended 10 or more times had outcomes as poor, or poorer, than those permanently excluded. For example, around 90% of pupils suspended five times, 96% of those suspended 10 or more times, and 94% of permanently excluded pupils did not achieve Level 3 qualifications by age 19. Further research is needed to unpack the reasons behind this.

 

 

Research impact

Since the research was published, it has received extensive media coverage. The findings have been reported by national newspapers including The Guardian, The Independent and the Evening Standard. Sector-specific media with an education focus have also reported on the work. The team appeared on national radio programmes, including LBC and TalkTV, to discuss this research and raise awareness for its implications.

Education unions, including the National Association of Head Teachers and the Association of School and College Leaders have reinforced EPI’s call for early intervention. The General Secretary of the Association of School and College Leaders, Pepe Di’Iasio, commented:

“To prevent behavioural issues from escalating, early intervention is essential. This requires sufficient investment in staff, training, and specialist support – all of which are currently in short supply due to the last government’s persistent underfunding of education and public services. As a result, we are witnessing a worrying rise in challenging behaviour, with the number of suspensions in secondary schools soaring by 38% year-on-year.”

The report highlighted the need to address broader factors influencing behaviour, such as mental health and family support. The government publicly acknowledged these challenges, with a Department for Education spokesperson outlining plans to reduce child poverty and improve access to mental health professionals in schools.

Research outputs

Publications and reports

• EPI Report: Outcomes for young people who experience multiple suspensions, March 2024
• EPI Report: Early adult outcomes for suspended pupils, August 2024

Blogs, news posts, and videos

• EPI Blog: Outcomes for pupils suspended in primary school, April 2024

Awards

• Impact of Analysis Award, 2024: ONS Research Excellence Awards 2024

About the ONS Secure Research Service

The ONS Secure Research Service is an accredited trusted research environment, using the Five Safes Framework to provide secure access to de-identified, unpublished data.

If you use ONS Secure Research Service data and would like to discuss writing a future case study with us, please get in touch at IDS.Impact@ons.gov.uk. Please also report any outputs here: Outputs Reporting Form

This project was commissioned by Impetus and conducted by researchers from the Education Policy Institute.